Middle East Oil Exports Recover, but Libya Still Has Barrels the Market Needs
Middle East crude oil exports rebounded sharply in September as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates restored shipments disrupted by the conflict with Iran. But flows remain well below pre-war levels, keeping supply security high on the agenda and giving Libya a stronger reason to protect and expand its own oil exports.
Crude exports from key Middle Eastern producers reached 16.328 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. That was the highest level since the conflict began in February, but still around 3.2 million bpd below February’s 19.513 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia drove much of the recovery. Its crude exports rose to about 5.4 million bpd in September, from 2.446 million bpd in August. Shipments from Ras Tanura also increased sharply, although they remained below their February level.
The recovery has also come with major changes in how Gulf producers move crude. Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline disrupted exports from Yanbu, pushing more Saudi barrels toward routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that flows through the strait were expected to reach about 9.719 million bpd in September.
Yet the market is not back to normal. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried around 20% of the world’s daily crude oil and LNG supply, according to Reuters. Traffic and exports remain well below those levels, while alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers add cost and complexity to the market.
Libya’s Oil Becomes More Valuable When Supply Security Matters
This is where Libya’s position becomes important.
Libya is not part of the Gulf export figures cited by Kpler, but it remains one of Africa’s largest oil producers and a significant source of Mediterranean crude. The country’s production stood at around 1.4 million bpd in September, according to NOC Chairman Massoud Suleman. The NOC has also said it wants to reach 1.5 million bpd before the end of 2026.
For European and Mediterranean buyers, Libyan barrels have an advantage that Gulf crude does not: they do not need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
That does not make Libya immune from the wider oil shock. Higher global prices can raise government revenues, increase the value of exports and improve the economics of upstream investment. But they also raise the cost of fuel imports and increase the economic cost of every barrel Libya fails to produce.
That problem has already appeared this month.
A shutdown of the Sharara-Zawiya pipeline caused production losses of more than 720,000 barrels in four days, according to the NOC. The corporation estimated direct financial losses at more than $75 million and warned that a prolonged disruption could also threaten operations at the Zawiya refinery.
The incident shows the gap between Libya’s resource potential and its ability to deliver barrels consistently. Global buyers are paying close attention to supply reliability, while Libya continues to face risks from pipeline closures, field disruptions and problems around critical oil infrastructure.
A Higher-Price Market Raises the Stakes for Libya
The regional supply disruption has already pushed oil prices sharply higher. Reuters reported Brent crude above $100 a barrel in September as the conflict continued to threaten supply and shipping routes.
For Libya, that creates a direct fiscal opportunity. Oil still dominates the country’s public finances, so additional production at high prices can translate quickly into higher export earnings and government revenue.
But the same environment makes production interruptions more expensive.
Every lost Libyan barrel represents not only lost export revenue but also a missed opportunity to supply a market that is still operating below its pre-war level. The Sharara disruption offered a clear example: while international buyers remain concerned about supply, Libya temporarily removed hundreds of thousands of barrels from the market.
The longer-term question is therefore less about whether Libya has oil to sell. It is whether the country can provide reliable volumes.
The NOC is pursuing higher production and has continued field visits and work under its production increase programme. If Libya can maintain production around 1.4 million bpd and move toward 1.5 million bpd, it could increase its contribution to Mediterranean supply at a time when buyers are placing a higher value on dependable barrels outside the Gulf.
But that opportunity depends on infrastructure and operational stability. The September experience at Sharara shows how quickly production gains can disappear when pipelines or oil facilities become vulnerable to disruption.
For Libya, the regional oil crisis therefore presents two sides of the same equation: higher prices and stronger demand for secure supply can increase the value of Libyan crude, but only if Libya can keep its own barrels moving.
